Document Type : Original Article
Authors
1
Associate Professor and Faculty Member of Agricultural Planning, Economics and Rural Development Research Institute (APERDRI), Tehran, Iran.
2
Phd Student of international economics and Head of the Trade Policy Committee of the Secretariat of Pricing Council and Adopting Supportive Policies for Essential Agricultural Products, Tehran, Iran.
3
Senior Expert and Deputy of the Secretariat of Pricing Council and Adopting Supportive Policies for Essential Agricultural Products. Tehran. Iran.
Abstract
Introduction: Food security and foreign exchange earnings are affected by various factors and products. A product approach as an important and effective factor can lead to the acceleration of the realization of food security goals. Dates, as a basic, strategic and currency-generating product, have always been of interest to agricultural policymakers. This product is of particular importance due to its high nutritional value and economic aspect. The economic importance of this product as one of the non-oil export items is that, in addition to high exports and currency-generating, due to the limitation of its main production areas in the world, the possibility of other products competing with this strategic product is relatively low, and therefore a special place can be envisaged for it from an economic point of view. Accordingly, a study of economic issues and trade influencing factors of dates, especially regarding price, can be important. Accordingly, the main goal of this study is to analyze the long-run relationships among World date prices, Iran’s export prices, and domestic market prices.. Examining the price transmission mechanism between the world market, Iran’s export market, and the domestic market can thus provide clearer insights for policymaking in foreign trade and help improve the competitiveness of Iran’s exports.
Materials and Methods: In this study, annual time series data from 2003 to 2022 were used to analyze the relationship between world prices of date and Iran’s export prices, while monthly data from 2019 and 2020 were employed to examine the relationship between export prices and domestic prices. Annual data on the world export price of dates and Iran’s export prices, as well as monthly data on Iran’s export prices and domestic market prices, were processed and analyzed using the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) in EViews software.
Results and Discussion: According to the information available on the FAO website in 2021, Iran is one of the largest producers of dates in the world, ranking third in the world in terms of production. According to the information on the Trade Map website, the share of Iranian date exports in the world is 12.5 percent, and the world export rank of Iranian date products is third after Saudi Arabia and The usurping Zionist regime (Israel). It should be noted that over the past years, Iran has always ranked first to fourth in the world in terms of date exports. According to the statistics of the Customs of the Islamic Republic of Iran, in 2022, the number of countries importing dates from Iran was 81 countries, so that India, Pakistan, Turkey, Kazakhstan, Afghanistan, the UAE, Iraq, Uzbekistan, Russia and China are among the top ten countries importing dates from Iran. Based on available information, the trend in world prices of dates during the years 2003-2022 shows that, despite fluctuations, it has had an increasing trend, reaching from $757 per ton to $1251 per ton in 2022. Also, the trend in the export price of Iranian dates over the same period of time indicates the existence of very high fluctuations, so that initially there was an increasing trend and then since 2018 there has been a completely decreasing trend. The results indicate that there is no significant long-term relationship between the world price of dates and the Iran’s export price . The special conditions of Iran's foreign trade in recent years and international restrictions could be the reason for the difference between these results and previous research. The monthly trend of Iran’s export prices of dates during the years 2019-2020 shows that despite a downward trend in some months, it has had a stable trend throughout the period. Also, the monthly trend of the domestic price of dates during the mentioned period shows that it has fluctuated during this period, which has found an increasing trend in the final stages of the mentioned period. The findings also show that there is no long-term relationship between the export price and the domestic price of Iranian dates; meaning that price changes in the domestic market do not necessarily reflect price developments in the export market.
Conclusion and Suggestions: The results indicate that there is no significant long-term relationship between the world price of dates and the Iran’s export price dates. This finding is completely different from the results obtained by Eskandarpour et al. (2014), which stated that "the Granger causality test shows that the of export prices of Iranian dates influence world prices, and not the other way around." On the other hand, the estimated results regarding the relationship between Iran’s export prices and domestic prices of dates also indicate that there is no long-term relationship between these two variables. Given that Iran has been the third largest exporter of dates in recent years, it was expected to have a relationship with world prices, but contrary to expectations, the research results do not confirm this. Based on these results, it can be concluded that Iran’s date market does not follow a typical price transmission mechanism across different market levels, highlighting the need to revise supportive and export policies. In this regard, it is emphasized that Iran's policymaking methods regarding this product should be revised in accordance with international conditions and the position of this product in the world and in the world market should be used in a more favorable manner. Therefore, to enhance Iran's position in world markets and strengthen export competitiveness, it is recommended to implement policies such as providing appropriate financial facilities to producers and exporters as an efficient export incentive, eliminating foreign exchange commitment requirements, providing air transportation (cargo) subsidies, and reducing export-related costs. Such an approach can reduce transaction costs, increase Iran's share in world trade of dates, and provide a basis for sustainable development of exports of this product.
Keywords
