اقتصاد کشاورزی و روستایی

اقتصاد کشاورزی و روستایی

تحلیل منطقه‌ای ناهنجاری قیمت مواد غذایی در ایران

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان
1 استادیار اقتصاد کشاورزی، موسسه پژوهش های برنامه ریزی، اقتصاد کشاورزی و توسعه روستایی، تهران، ایران
2 استادیار اقتصاد کشاورزی، موسسه پژوهش‌های برنامه‌ریزی، اقتصاد کشاورزی و توسعه روستایی. تهران. ایران
3 استادیار اقتصاد کشاورزی
چکیده
ثبات قیمت مواد غذایی دغدغه اصلی اکثر دولت­‌ها در سراسر جهان محسوب می­‌شود، چراکه هرگونه افزایش قیمت مواد غذایی در سطح خرد، بر قدرت خرید شهروندان و در سطح کلان، از طریق کانال تورم، بر بسیاری از شاخص‌­های کلان اقتصادی تأثیر می‌‏گذارد. با این رویکرد، در مطالعه حاضر، به تحلیل منطقه‌­ای ناهنجاری قیمت مواد غذایی در ایران پرداخته شد. بدین منظور، نخست، شاخص ماهانه ناهنجاری قیمت مواد غذایی (IFPA) برای گروه‌­های کالایی و استان‌­های مختلف در بازه 1401-1397 محاسبه شد. در ادامه، برای درک بهتر ناهنجاری قیمت در استان­‌ها، دلیل تفاوت میان استان­‌های مختلف، شناسایی استان­‌های دارای رفتار مشابه و ترسیم اطلس ناهنجاری قیمت مواد غذایی استان­‌های کشور، از روش خوشه‌­بندی میانگین K استفاده شد. نتایج نشان داد که طی سال‌­های مورد مطالعه، بالاترین ناهنجاری قیمت مواد غذایی، به‌‏ترتیب، مربوط به استان­‌های ایلام، قزوین، زنجان و مازندران بود و همچنین، استان‏‌های سیستان و بلوچستان، هرمزگان، خراسان جنوبی و آذربایجان شرقی در دوره یادشده کمترین ناهنجاری قیمت مواد غذایی را داشتند. سپس، استان‌­ها در شش خوشه طبقه‌­بندی شدند. در همه خوشه‌­ها، میان مخارج و ناهنجاری ارتباط مستقیم وجود داشته و استان‌‏هایی که در آن­ها مخارج واقعی برای خرید مواد غذایی و یا همان تقاضا برای مواد غذایی بالاتر بوده، ناهنجاری قیمت نیز بالاتر بوده است. میزان مخارج خانوار برای مواد غذایی در استان­‌های واقع در خوشه اول شامل سیستان و بلوچستان، خراسان جنوبی، خراسان شمالی، کرمان و هرمزگان پایین‌­تر از سایر استان­‌ها برآورد شد. از آنجا که این استان‌­ها از استان­‌های محروم کشور به‏‌شمار می‏‌روند، خانوارها به‏‌علت سطح درآمد پایین، تقاضای مصرفی کمتری داشتند و بنابراین، ناهنجاری قیمت مواد غذایی در این استان­‌ها نسبت به سایر استان‌­ها پایین­‌تر بود؛ در مقابل، در استان‌­های واقع در خوشه­ سوم شامل تهران، مازندران و البرز، مخارج واقعی خانوار برای مواد غذایی نسبت به سایر استان­‌ها بالاتر بوده است. از این‏‌رو، در این استان‌­ها، اگرچه 25 درصد مخارج خانوار صرف مواد غذایی می­‌شود، اما میزان مخارج برای مواد غذایی به لحاظ عددی بالاتر از سایر استان­‌هاست. همچنین، تقاضای مصرفی و به تبع آن، ناهنجاری قیمت مواد غذایی در این استان‌­ها از سایر استان­‌های کشور بالا­تر بوده است. در نهایت، بر اساس نتایج مطالعه، مشاهده شد که صادرات و یا قاچاق مواد غذایی و کالاهای کشاورزی از برخی استان­‌های مرزی علت اصلی ناهنجاری قیمت مواد غذایی در در خوشه‏‌های دوم، پنجم و ششم است. با توجه به یافته­‌ها، نخست، پیشنهاد می‌­شود که در سیاست‌­های تنظیم بازاری دولت بازنگری و به‌‏ویژه، به استان­‌های محروم توجه شود؛ آنگاه برای جلوگیری از رشد قیمت مواد غذایی در استان­‌های مرزی، نظارت بر پدیده قاچاق و برخورد با آن در کوتاه­‌مدت از طریق اقدامات نظارتی برای جلوگیری از خروج غیررسمی کالاها و در بلندمدت از طریق واقعی ساختن قیمت مواد غذایی صورت گیرد.
کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله English

Regional Analysis of Food Price Anomaly in Iran

نویسندگان English

Mehdi Shabanzadeh-Khoshrody 1
Ebrahim Javdan 2
mohsen rafati 3
1 Assistant Professor of Agricultural Economics, Institute of Planning Research, Agricultural Economics and Rural Development, Tehran, Iran
2 Assistant Professor of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural Planning, Economic and Rural Development Research Institute (APERDRI). Tehran. Iran
3 Assistant Professor of Agricultural Economics
چکیده English

Introduction: Food price stability is the main concern of most governments around the world, because any increase in food prices at the micro level affects the purchasing power of citizens and at the macro level, through the inflation channel, it affects many macroeconomic indicators.
Materials and Methods: With this approach, this study aimed at conducting a regional analysis of food price anomaly in Iran. For this purpose, first, the Indicator of Food Price Anomaly (IFPA) was calculated for different provinces during the period of 2018-2022. Furthermore, the K-means clustering technique was employed to comprehend the price discrepancy in the regions, to pinpoint the underlying cause of the variation among the provinces, to recognize the provinces indicating similar patterns, and to create a visual representation of the food price anomaly across Iran's provinces. 
Results and Discussion: The study findings indicated that throughout the examined years, the provinces of Qazvin, Zanjan, and Mazandaran showed the highest anomaly in food prices, respectively. In addition, Sistan and Baluchistan, Hormozgan, South Khorasan and East Azerbaijan provinces had the least anomaly in food prices during the mentioned period. Then, the provinces were classified into six clusters. In all the clusters, there was a direct relationship between 
expenditure and anomaly, and in the provinces where the real expenditure for buying food or the demand for food was higher, the price anomaly was also higher. The amount of household spending on food in the provinces located in the first cluster including Sistan and Baluchistan, South Khorasan, North Khorasan, Kerman and Hormozgan was lower than other provinces. Since these were among the deprived provinces of the country, households had lower consumption demand due to the lower income level and therefore, the food price anomaly in these provinces was lower than other provinces. On the other hand, in the provinces located in the third cluster, including Tehran, Mazandaran and Alborz, the real household expenditure on food was higher than other provinces. Therefore, in these provinces, although 25 percent of household expenses were spent on food, the amount of food expenses was numerically higher than other provinces. Thus, the consumption demand and consequently, the food price anomaly was higher in these provinces, compared to other provinces. Finally, based on the study results, it was observed that in the second, fifth and sixth clusters, the export or smuggling of food and agricultural goods from some border provinces was the main cause of the anomaly of food prices in these clusters.
Conclusion and Suggestions: According to the findings, it is suggested that the government revise its market regulation policies and pay special attention to the deprived provinces. In addition, in order to prevent the increased food prices in the border provinces, the phenomenon of smuggling should be controlled in the short term through control measures to prevent the unofficial exit of goods and in the long term by making food prices realistic.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

Food Price Anomaly
K-Means Clustering Method
Household Expenditure
Iran (Provinces)
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