نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
عنوان مقاله English
نویسندگان English
Introduction: Food price stability is the main concern of most governments around the world, because any increase in food prices at the micro level affects the purchasing power of citizens and at the macro level, through the inflation channel, it affects many macroeconomic indicators.
Materials and Methods: With this approach, this study aimed at conducting a regional analysis of food price anomaly in Iran. For this purpose, first, the Indicator of Food Price Anomaly (IFPA) was calculated for different provinces during the period of 2018-2022. Furthermore, the K-means clustering technique was employed to comprehend the price discrepancy in the regions, to pinpoint the underlying cause of the variation among the provinces, to recognize the provinces indicating similar patterns, and to create a visual representation of the food price anomaly across Iran's provinces.
Results and Discussion: The study findings indicated that throughout the examined years, the provinces of Qazvin, Zanjan, and Mazandaran showed the highest anomaly in food prices, respectively. In addition, Sistan and Baluchistan, Hormozgan, South Khorasan and East Azerbaijan provinces had the least anomaly in food prices during the mentioned period. Then, the provinces were classified into six clusters. In all the clusters, there was a direct relationship between
expenditure and anomaly, and in the provinces where the real expenditure for buying food or the demand for food was higher, the price anomaly was also higher. The amount of household spending on food in the provinces located in the first cluster including Sistan and Baluchistan, South Khorasan, North Khorasan, Kerman and Hormozgan was lower than other provinces. Since these were among the deprived provinces of the country, households had lower consumption demand due to the lower income level and therefore, the food price anomaly in these provinces was lower than other provinces. On the other hand, in the provinces located in the third cluster, including Tehran, Mazandaran and Alborz, the real household expenditure on food was higher than other provinces. Therefore, in these provinces, although 25 percent of household expenses were spent on food, the amount of food expenses was numerically higher than other provinces. Thus, the consumption demand and consequently, the food price anomaly was higher in these provinces, compared to other provinces. Finally, based on the study results, it was observed that in the second, fifth and sixth clusters, the export or smuggling of food and agricultural goods from some border provinces was the main cause of the anomaly of food prices in these clusters.
Conclusion and Suggestions: According to the findings, it is suggested that the government revise its market regulation policies and pay special attention to the deprived provinces. In addition, in order to prevent the increased food prices in the border provinces, the phenomenon of smuggling should be controlled in the short term through control measures to prevent the unofficial exit of goods and in the long term by making food prices realistic.
کلیدواژهها English