Introduction: The expansion of non-oil exports is a key priority of Iran’s economy; and given the considerable potential of the agricultural sector, it has become one of the main drivers of non-oil export growth. Among agricultural products, saffron stands out as one of the most important export commodities. Iran is the world’s largest producer of saffron. According to the statistical yearbook of the Ministry of Agriculture-Jahad (MAJ), in cropping year of 2024-2025, with approximately 120,000 hectares under cultivation, Iran’s saffron production reached 436 tons, accounting for nearly 90 percent of global production. Over the past two decades, Iran has consistently maintained its leading position in the global saffron market, capturing more than 70 percent of the total value of world saffron exports. In this context, given the strategic importance of saffron in Iran’s agricultural export structure, the present study provided a comprehensive analysis of the Iranian saffron export market.

Materials and Methods: To achieve the objectives of this study, time-series data on saffron production and exports were collected for the period of 2014-2023. Descriptive analytical methods were first employed to survey trends in saffron production and export performance over the study period. Subsequently, the structure of the Iranian saffron export market and its changes were analyzed using market concentration measures. In this regard, market concentration (reflecting the degree of competition and monopoly) was assessed, where higher concentration indicated a more uneven distribution of market shares. Among the various measures proposed in the literature, the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) was employed in this study due to its strong theoretical foundations and widespread application.
Result and Discussion: Based on the study findings, the export price per kilogram of Iranian saffron exhibited a clear downward trend over the analyzed period, declining from over $1,400 in 2014 to approximately $950 in 2023. In other words, despite the relatively stable volume of saffron exports, the unit export price of Iranian saffron experienced a substantial decrease throughout the studied period. In 2022, Iran accounted for nearly 60 percent of global saffron exports, maintaining its dominant position in the international market. Spain, Afghanistan, and the United Arab Emirates ranked next, with export shares of 15, 10, and 4 percent, respectively. Notably, the United Arab Emirates does not produce saffron, while Spain and Afghanistan each contribute only about 2 percent to global saffron production. Despite their limited production capacity, these three countries collectively account for almost 30 percent of global saffron exports, highlighting their important role in the international saffron trade. Iranian saffron is typically exported in bulk and frequently reaches global markets through indirect channels. The role of intermediary countries is significant; these countries do not primarily produce saffron but import it from Iran and subsequently, re-export it with added value. Given the high value of saffron, the findings indicated that importing countries were predominantly high-income economies, including European, North American, the Persian Gulf and East Asian countries. The study results further demonstrated that Iran’s saffron exports became increasingly diversified in terms of market access, as reflected in a declining HHI. Specifically, the HHI for export destinations fell from 0.45 in 2016 to 0.19 in 2023. The most pronounced reduction occurred in 2017, followed by a gradual downward trend and a slight increase after 2019. Overall, the observed trend indicated an improvement in competition within the Iranian saffron export market over the studied period. Specifically, the number of destination countries increased, reflecting greater diversification of export markets. Empirical evidence showed that the United Arab Emirates’ share of Iranian saffron exports declined from 62 percent in 2016 to 30 percent in 2023, while China’s share decreased from 28 percent to 22 percent over the same period. In contrast, Spain and Afghanistan increased their shares of Iranian saffron exports. Given Spain's position in the global saffron market and Afghanistan’s involvement in saffron production, this trend should be considered in shaping Iran’s export strategies in this sector.
Conclusion and Suggestions: Based on the findings of this study, it is recommended that Iran’s saffron exports be strategically planned with major consumer markets as the primary destinations. Achieving this goal requires proper processing, standardized packaging, and full compliance with the health and quality regulations of the target countries. In addition, adopting effective trade policies, leveraging regional and extra-regional trade agreements, and strengthening economic diplomacy will help ensure that Iran’s saffron directly reaches final consumer markets. This approach will reduce the role of intermediary countries and the value added that they currently capture from Iran’s saffron exports.