اقتصاد کشاورزی و روستایی

اقتصاد کشاورزی و روستایی

تحلیل روند شاخص‌های امنیت غذایی ایران با رویکرد مقایسه‌ای کشورهای منتخب آسیا

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان
فریبا عباسی 1
علی کیانی راد 2
1 پژوهشگر موسسه پژوهش های برنامه ریزی ، اقتصاد کشاورزی و توسعه روستایی، تهران، ایران
2 دانشیار اقتصاد کشاورزی، مؤسسه پژوهش‌های برنامه‌ریزی، اقتصاد کشاورزی و توسعه روستایی، تهران، ایران
10.30490/etr.2025.367523.1067
چکیده
امنیت غذایی مفهومی چندبعدی و از ارکان اصلی توسعه پایدار و رفاه جوامع است و تحلیل وضعیت آن در میان کشورها، می‌تواند زمینه‌ساز شناسایی الگوهای موفق و آسیب‌پذیری‌های ساختاری باشد. به این منظور در این پژوهش، وضعیت تأمین و پایداری غذا در ایران و 30 کشور منتخب آسیای میانه، جنوب و جنوب‌غربی آسیا طی دوره 2000 تا 2023 با استفاده از داده‌های 25 شاخص سازمان خواربار و کشاورزی ملل متحد مورد ارزیابی قرار گرفت. به‌منظور ترکیب و مقایسه شاخص‌ها، از روش میانگین وزنی ساده استفاده گردید که ماتریس تصمیم بی‌مقیاس شده را با وزن‌های مربوط به هر زیر شاخص تلفیق می‌کند. نتایج پژوهش نشان داد که در سال ۲۰۲۳، کشورهای مورد مطالعه مطابق با طبقه‌بندی استاندارد شاخص امنیت غذایی (80-100: بسیار بالا، 60-79: بالا، 20-39: پایین، 0-19: بحرانی) در پنج گروه قرار گرفتند. با این­ حال، برای تحلیل سیاستی و ارائه تصویر روشن‌­تر از وضعیت منطقه، این سطوح در سه گروه اصلی، کشورهایی با شاخص امنیت غذایی بالا و پایدار، کشورهایی با شاخص متوسط و کشورهایی با شاخص پایین و ناپایدار تجمیع و تحلیل شدند. ایران در این بازه زمانی، روند صعودی پایدار شاخص امنیت‌غذایی داشته و در اکثر سال‌ها بالاتر از میانگین منطقه قرار گرفته است. بر این اساس، سرمایه‌گذاری در توسعه انبارهای هوشمند، سامانه‌های ردیابی غذا و بهبود زنجیره توزیع داخلی می‌تواند اثربخشی سیاست‌های امنیت غذایی را افزایش دهد.
کلیدواژه‌ها
پایداری غذایی
ارزیابی مقایسه‌ای
میانگین وزنی ساده
تاب‌آوری غذایی
ایران

عنوان مقاله English

Trend Analysis of Iran’s Food Security Indicators with a Comparative Approach to Selected Asian Countries

نویسندگان English

fariba abbasi 1
Ali Kiani Rad 2
1 Researcher of the Planning Research Institute, Agricultural Economics and Rural Development , Tehran, IRAN
2 Associate Professor of Agricultural Economics; Agricultural Planning, Economics and Rural Development Research Institute (APERI), Tehran, Iran
چکیده English

Introduction: Food security is a multidimensional concept and a fundamental pillar of sustainable development and societal well-being. Assessing its status across countries helps identify successful patterns, structural vulnerabilities, and long-term risks affecting national and regional food systems. Given the rapid population growth, increasing demand for food, environmental constraints, and geopolitical instabilities in Asia, evaluating food security trends has become essential for informed policymaking.
Materials and Methods: This study evaluates the level of food availability and stability in Iran and 30 selected countries in Central, South, and Southwest Asia over the period 2000–2023, using data from 25 indicators developed by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO). To integrate and compare these indicators, a simple weighted average method was employed, which aggregates the normalized decision matrix using the assigned weights for each sub-indicator. Countries with incomplete data—Bahrain, Palestine, and Bhutan—were excluded from the final comparative analysis. The regional classification allows for a structured comparison of food security performance across diverse socioeconomic contexts.
Results and Discussion: The results show that, in 2023, the studied countries were classified into the standard five food security categories (80–100: very high; 60–79: high; 40–59: moderate; 20–39: low; 0–19: critical) based on established literature. For analytical clarity and to strengthen the regional interpretation, these five levels were consolidated into three broader groups: (1) countries with high and stable food security, (2) countries with moderate and partially stable conditions, and (3) countries facing low and unstable food security.
Iran demonstrated a consistently upward trend in its food security index throughout the study period and ranked above the regional average in most years. The analysis further indicates that countries with larger and more stable economies generally exhibited higher resilience in food access, whereas countries affected by conflict, economic shocks, or high import dependency showed higher vulnerability. These results underscore the importance of economic capacity, infrastructure, and governance quality in shaping long-term food security outcomes.
Conclusion and Suggestions: Overall, the study highlights substantial disparities in food security across Asia and emphasizes the need for coordinated national and regional actions. For Iran and similar middle-income economies, strengthening food system resilience requires strategic investment in smart storage infrastructure, digital food-tracking platforms, and enhanced domestic distribution networks. Additionally, diversifying import sources, improving early-warning systems for climatic and market risks, and expanding risk-based agricultural insurance can significantly enhance food security stability. These findings provide valuable evidence for designing integrated food policies aimed at reducing volatility, improving sustainability, and supporting long-term national and regional food security planning.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

Food Sustainability
Comparative Assessment
Simple Weighted Average
Food Resilience
Iran
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